ABSTRACT
The study addressed the growing vulnerabilities and insecurities faced by nation-states due to climate change. It emphasized its role as a significant threat to national security among nation-states. It focused on North Central Nigeria, where it explored how climate change exacerbates national security by affecting agricultural productivity and resource availability. The study established a clear link between climate change and the conflict, assessed current measures, identified policy gaps, and developed a comprehensive framework for sustainable peace and security in the region. The study employed a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative data analysis of climate and conflict patterns with qualitative interviews of stakeholders, including herders, farmers, and policy-makers. Data was collected through surveys, field observations, and secondary sources such as government reports and academic studies. The literature review examined the causes of climate change, the historical evolution of climate science, and the specific dynamics of herders-farmers conflicts. Key findings indicated a significant relationship between climate change and conflict escalation due to environmental changes exacerbating resource scarcity, impacting conflict dynamics, and revealed the inadequacy of current measures. The study concluded that addressing environmental vulnerabilities is crucial for mitigating conflict risks, highlighted the need for a comprehensive policy framework integrating climate change considerations. Recommendations included developing a comprehensive policy framework, investing in grazing reserves, promoting climate-smart agriculture, establishing local peace committees, implementing the National Livestock Transformation Plan, providing vocational training, strengthening community policing, and fostering stakeholder engagement.
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the study
A constant feature of nation-states across the world is the presence of vulnerabilities, threats, and insecurities. These insecurities, which could be human or natural, can upset the stability of any country. They manifest in different forms, creating situations with adverse implications for national security (Moran, 2014). National security is a delicate balance between several security subsystems of a nation that are perpetually in dynamic flux. These subsystems include social, political, economic, and environmental factors needed to create stability in a state's security. Gross imbalances in these factors can cause severe infractions detrimental to national security. In recent times, one of the most common globalized factors adversely affecting a state’s stability is imbalances in the environment caused by changes in climatic conditions, commonly referred to as climate change.
Climate change refers to abnormal variations in weather conditions which affect man and the environment. It manifests mainly as extreme variations in temperature and precipitation as well as sea level rises. These manifestations have led to drought, desertification, floods and land degradation. Climate Change is universally considered as one of the most potent threats to sustainable development. It could affect peace and stability through impacts on the environment, physical infrastructure, human health, agriculture and natural resources. However, Climate Change alone does not cause conflict but could aggregate the conditions for conflict.
According to the American Security Project, climate change has the potential to exacerbate already-existing dangers by acting as a threat multiplier or accelerant of instability (Xander, 2012). This statement aligns with the previously mentioned ideas. As a result, it has become a crucial worldwide issue that has a significant impact on many socioeconomic sectors and exacerbates already-existing disputes. A noteworthy expression of this phenomenon is the escalation of confrontations between herders and farmers, a condition that has been noted in various geographical regions, including Asia and South America. These conflicts, primarily driven by competition over diminishing natural resources, have been increasingly influenced by climate change, leading to heightened tensions and violence.
In Asia, particularly in countries like India and Pakistan, the impacts of climate change on herders-farmers conflicts are evident. The region has experienced significant changes in weather patterns, including increased frequency and intensity of droughts, erratic rainfall, and rising temperatures. These climatic shifts have severely affected agricultural productivity and pasture availability, leading to intense competition between herders and farmers for land and water resources. Similarly, in India, for instance, states like Rajasthan and Gujarat have witnessed escalating conflicts between herders, predominantly from pastoral communities such as the Raikas and farmers. The scarcity of grazing lands due to prolonged droughts has forced herders to encroach on agricultural lands, leading to violent clashes (Chaturvedi, 2016). In order to address these issues, the Indian government has been putting regulations into place that support sustainable farming methods, enhance water management, and encourage communication between communities that are at odds. However, because of the intricate socioeconomic dynamics and the widespread effects of climate change, these policies' efficacy is still restricted (Government of India, 2018).
Similar conflicts have been documented in Pakistan in areas like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, where resource competition has been more intense due to protracted droughts and scarce water supplies. In order to solve these problems, the Pakistani government has launched a number of initiatives, such as the development of water reservoirs and the promotion of crop varieties resistant to drought. Notwithstanding these initiatives, there are still frequent violent outbursts and persistent conflicts between farmers and herders, making the situation unstable (Khan, 2017).
In South America, the impacts of climate change on herders-farmers conflicts are particularly pronounced in countries like Brazil and Argentina. The region has experienced significant shifts in rainfall patterns, leading to both extreme droughts and flooding. These climatic changes have disrupted agricultural cycles and pasture availability, exacerbating conflicts between herders and farmers. In Brazil, the semi- arid region of the Northeast, known as the Sertão, has been severely affected by recurrent droughts. This has led to a decrease in available grazing lands for herders, pushing them to encroach on farmlands, resulting in violent conflicts. The Brazilian government has attempted to mitigate these conflicts through initiatives such as the construction of cisterns for water storage and the implementation of land tenure reforms. However, these measures have not fully resolved the underlying issues, as climate change continues to strain the already fragile resources (da Silva, 2015).
Unpredictable rainfall and protracted dry spells have decreased the amount of water available for agriculture and cattle husbandry in Argentina, especially in the Pampas region. Farmers and herders are now more competitive than ever, which frequently results in arguments. The Argentine government has been tackling these issues by implementing laws meant to advance sustainable land management techniques and enhance irrigation infrastructure. Furthermore, there has been some progress in using community-based ways to resolve conflicts; yet, there are still difficulties due to the enduring effects of climate change (Giménez, 2016). The cases of Asia and South America illustrate the profound impact of climate change on herders-farmers conflicts. Governments in these regions have been grappling with the challenges through various policy interventions and conflict resolution mechanisms. However, the persistent and evolving nature of climate change requires continuous and adaptive strategies to effectively address the root causes of these conflicts and promote sustainable coexistence between herders and farmers.
Climate change poses significant challenges to Africa, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and creating new threats. The continent, characterized by its diverse climates and ecosystems, faces severe impacts such as droughts, floods, and changing weather patterns. These impacts not only threaten food and water security but also induce various types of conflicts, particularly between herders and farmers over diminishing natural resources. African nations have initiated several international actions to mitigate the effects of climate change. The African Union (AU) has been instrumental in coordinating these efforts, focusing on policy frameworks and regional cooperation. The AU adopted the African Climate Change Strategy, which aims to enhance adaptive capacity, promote sustainable development, and strengthen the resilience of African countries. The strategy emphasizes the need for integrated approaches to manage water resources, agriculture, and energy systems in the context of climate change (African Union, 2014). PACJA is a coalition of African civil society organizations advocating for climate justice. It works to influence climate policy at national, regional, and international levels, ensuring that African voices are heard in global climate negotiations (PACJA, 2018).
Many African states have been battling the effects of climate change on a state level. For example, lengthy droughts and erratic rainfall have had a major impact on agricultural productivity in Kenya. Conflicts between pastoralist communities and farmers have been exacerbated by the lack of pasture and water, especially in the Rift Valley and Northern Kenya. According to Mkutu (2001), these confrontations are frequently violent and result in a large loss of life and property. Kenya's Climate Change Act of 2016 offers an institutional and legal framework for addressing climate change. The National Climate Change Council is established to supervise the implementation of climate policies, and the act requires the inclusion of climate change issues in sectoral and national planning (Government of Kenya, 2016).
Sudan's Darfur region is a prime example of how climate change can exacerbate conflicts. Diminishing rainfall and desertification have intensified competition for water and grazing land, contributing to the longstanding conflict in the region. The resource scarcity has fueled ethnic tensions and violence, complicating efforts to achieve peace (Kevane & Gray, 2008). Sudan has implemented the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) to address its climate vulnerabilities. The program focuses on improving water management, promoting sustainable agriculture, and enhancing early warning systems to reduce the risk of climate-induced disasters (Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources, 2007).
Before the discovery of oil in Nigeria, over 80 percent of the population was engaged in various agricultural activities. Agriculture was considered the bedrock of the economy, contributing over 60 percent to the nation's gross domestic product (GDP). It ensured food security, provided employment, supplied raw materials for industries, generated export earnings, and offered income to farmers, among other benefits (Andohol & Abbah, 2018). However, recent statistics indicate that the country faces a serious threat of hunger and poverty. Food insecurity in Nigeria has persisted, accompanied by rising food prices. In 2013, Nigeria was ranked 86th out of 107 countries on the Global Food Security Index. The situation has worsened since 2019 till date following the emergence of COVID 19. In 2022, Nigeria dropped to 94th out of 113 countries, placing it behind countries like Ethiopia, Niger, and Cameroon in terms of food security. In 2023, NBS estimate that 106.9 million Nigerians live in abject poverty. In all of these, a key factor contributing to Nigeria's food insecurity is climate change (Ayinde et al., 2020).
There is ongoing debate about whether climate change is the primary cause of herders-farmers conflicts in Nigeria. There are speculation that there is a systemic ethnic cleansing (Nwakanma and Boroh, 2019). If that is the case, how does one explain the presence of bandits reportedly entering Nigeria from Libya who are exacerbating tensions between herders and farmers. Kwaghga (2018) identifies land scarcity, population growth, political factors, and climate change as significant stressors contributing to the conflict. Oli et al. (2018) assert that climate change, evidenced by desert encroachment and shrinking water sources, has significantly contributed to national security in Nigeria. In November 2016, President Muhammdu Buhari stated during the Climate Change conference in Marrakech that Climate Change was a security threat that was aggravating insurgency and banditry in the North East and North West Nigeria. According to him the Lake Chad Basin has shrunk to about 10 percent of its original size, and this has seriously affected the livelihood of over 5 million people in the area. It had also contributed to the growth of insecurity in the region, including the emergence of Boko Haram Terrorist group (Batello, et al, 2004).
Climate Change has been identified as a significant trigger for the herders- farmers conflicts in North West Nigeria. As climate patterns shift, traditional grazing lands become less viable due to desertification, reduced rainfall, and changing vegetation patterns. This forces the herders to migrate southward in search of pasture and water for their livestock, often encroaching on farmlands. This migration leads to competition over resources, escalating tensions and sparking conflicts between herders and farmers. The resultant violence not only disrupts local communities but also poses a substantial threat to national security. The conflicts undermine agricultural productivity, contribute to food insecurity, and create conditions for further instability and displacement. Moreover, the strife diverts government resources and attention from other critical areas, exacerbating the challenges of governance and development. The interplay between climate change and resource-based conflicts underscores the urgent need for integrated policies that address both environmental sustainability and conflict resolution (Department of Climate Change, Federal Ministry of Environment, Nigeria, 2021).
In view of the above, the purpose of this study therefore is to critically analyze the impact of climate change on national security in North Central Nigeria. North Central Nigeria, also referred to as the Middle Belt, is a diverse region both ethnically and geographically. The region comprises six states: Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, and Plateau, along with the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja. It is characterized by a mix of ethnic groups including the Tiv, Idoma, Igala, Nupe, Berom, and many others, contributing to its rich cultural tapestry. The region's geography features a blend of savannah and rainforest, with the Benue River being a significant waterway that supports agriculture and human settlements. Climate change has notably impacted North Central Nigeria, manifesting through increased temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, and prolonged dry seasons. These climatic changes have profound implications for agriculture, which is the primary livelihood for the majority of the population in the region. The alteration in climate has led to reduced agricultural productivity, scarcity of water resources, and has exacerbated desertification and soil degradation (Odey et al., 2020).
The intensification of national security has led to significant social and economic disruptions. The frequent clashes have resulted in loss of lives, destruction of properties, and displacement of communities. According to Adetula (2019), the conflict has displaced thousands of people, forcing them into internally displaced persons (IDP) camps, particularly in Benue and Plateau states. This displacement not only disrupts the social fabric of communities but also places a significant burden on the local and national economy. The migration patterns of both herders and displaced farmers are influenced by the ongoing conflict. Herders are forced to alter their traditional migratory routes, often encroaching further into farming territories, which intensifies the conflict. On the other hand, displaced farmers migrate to urban areas or other rural regions, increasing the strain on resources and social services in these areas (Kwaghga, 2018).
In this study, there is the need to establish evidence based clear link between climate change and the escalation of conflicts, examining the responses to climate change in relation to these conflicts, and identifying the gaps in current policies. The study aims to develop a comprehensive framework that can guide policy responses, incorporating the impacts of climate change to effectively address and mitigate national security, thereby contributing to sustainable peace and security in the region.
1.2 Statement of the Research Problem
The government aims to ensure the security of its citizens by implementing measures to enhance national security. To mitigate climate change, the government has adopted several climate governance programs and actions, including the National Climate Change Policy and Response Strategy (NCCP-RS) and the National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate Change in Nigeria (NASPACCN). The Department of Climate Change under the Ministry of Environment is responsible for coordinating climate change issues in Nigeria and interacting with international organizations.
The absence of a comprehensive legal framework has affected the implementation of rules and procedures governing climate change. Insufficient public awareness has led to continued actions that exacerbate climate change. Additionally, adaptation efforts have been constrained by funding limitations, early warning mechanisms have been ineffective, and afforestation efforts have been hindered by human activities. Despite the government's efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change through various policies and programs, these initiatives have not effectively addressed the issues related to its impact on national security.
1.3 Research Questions
In view of the statement of the problem, this study seeks to identify possible solutions by addressing the following research questions:
a. What is the relationship between climate change and national security in North Central Nigeria?
b. How have climate change impacts influenced the dynamics of national security?
c. What measures have been implemented to address the herders- farmers conflict in the context of climate change?
d. What gaps exist in current policies addressing the herders- farmers conflict and climate change in North Central Nigeria?
e. How can a comprehensive framework be developed to address national security while considering the impacts of climate change?
1.4 Objectives of the Study
The objective of this study is to critically analyze the impact of climate change on national security in North Central Nigeria. However, the specific objectives of this study are to:
a. To investigate the relationship between climate change and the herders- farmers conflict in North Central Nigeria.
b. To analyze how climate change impacts have influenced the dynamics of national security.
c. To assess the measures that has been implemented to address the herders- farmers conflict in the context of climate change.
d. To identify the gaps in current policies addressing national security and climate change in North Central Nigeria.
e. To develop a comprehensive framework to address national security while considering the impacts of climate change.
1.5 Significance of Study
This study is significant for several reasons which are discussed in the subsequent paragraphs.
a. Policy Development. By establishing a clear link between climate change and national security, the study provides a basis for developing targeted and effective policies. This will help policymakers at he ONSA, Ministry of Environment, Presidency and State governments create strategies that address both environmental and security concerns in a cohesive manner.
b. Improved Implementation. The study identifies gaps in current climate change policies and their implementation, offering insights that can enhance the effectiveness of existing measures. Understanding these gaps can lead to more robust and comprehensive policy frameworks.
c. Awareness and Education. By highlighting the impact of climate change on national security, the study raises awareness among stakeholders, including government officials, civil society, and the general public. Increased awareness can drive collective action and support for sustainable practices.
d. Conflict Mitigation. The study’s findings can contribute to reducing national security by informing conflict resolution and peace building efforts. By addressing the root causes linked to climate change, long-term solutions can be developed to foster peace and stability in the region.
e. National Security. By exploring the implications of climate change on national security, the study emphasizes the need for integrated approaches that
consider environmental factors in security planning. This can lead to more resilient and adaptable security strategies.
f. Framework for Action. The proposed comprehensive framework will serve as a blueprint for future policies and interventions. This framework can guide decision-makers in creating adaptive and sustainable responses to climate change impacts, ensuring that both environmental and social dimensions are addressed.
g. Contribution to Research. The study adds to the body of knowledge on climate change and conflict, particularly in the context of North Central Nigeria. It provides empirical evidence and theoretical insights that can inform further research and academic discourse on this critical issue.
1.6 Scope of the Study
The scope of the study in terms of time frame covers from 2015 to 2024. The study focuses on this period because it captures the most recent developments in national security and climate change impacts in North Central Nigeria. In terms of geography, the study will focus on the North Central Nigeria.
1.7 Organization of the Study
a. Chapter 1: Introduction. This chapter provides a comprehensive introduction to the study. It includes: a background of the Study which covers the overview of national security and the impact of climate change in North Central Nigeria, emphasizing the significance of these issues for national security. This is followed by Statement of the Problem which is a detailed description of the challenges faced in addressing national security in the context of climate change, highlighting the limitations of current policies
b. Chapter 2: Literature Review and Theoretical Framework. This chapter reviews existing literature and theoretical perspectives relevant to the study.
c. Chapter 3: Research Methodology. This chapter details the research design and methods used to conduct the study.
d. Chapter 4: Data Presentation and Analysis. This chapter presents and analyzes the collected data.
e. Chapter 5: Summary, Conclusion, and Recommendations. This chapter summarizes the study's findings, draws conclusions, and offers recommendations.
For more Environmental Planning Projects Click here
===================================================================Item Type: Project Material | Size: 75 pages | Chapters: 1-5
Format: MS Word | Delivery: Within 30Mins.
===================================================================
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.