EFFECT OF POPULATION INCREASE ON AVAILABLE ARABLE LAND

ABSTRACT
Population increase is a major driver of pressure on land use occasioned by encroachment into arable lands which is as a result of a trade-off on rural land between agriculture and urban growth. Based on this, the study examines the effect of population increase on arable land use in Igabi local government, Kaduna state. The study employed the use of LandSat/GIS imagery of 1995, 2005 and 2015 as well as cross sectional survey to generate data. Data were analyzed using frequency tables, percentages, multinomial logistic regression and the multiple regression model. LandSat result shows that built-up areas increased from16.46% to 19.43% and 20.99% in 1995, 2005 and 2015 respectively while arable land increased from 9.34% to 18.27% and 27.72% in 1995, 2005 and 2015. High forest area decreased by 55.0% between 1995 and 2005 and 27.9% between 2005 and 2015. Then water body decreased from 2.30% in 1995 to 1.21% in 2005 but rose by 2% in 2015. Degraded forest increased from 32.55% in 1995 to 43.39% in 2005 and then declined to 36.52 in 2015. The cross sectional survey shows that 64% of the respondents agreed that availability of market influenced arable land pattern while 82.6% of the respondents agreed that the type of land ownership of the residents have affected arable land in the study area. Also, 92.9% of the respondents agreed that shortage of land has affected arable land while 94.4% of the respondents believed that distance to farmlands affected arable land and 89.3% equally agreed that high demand for agricultural produce affects arable land in the study area. Results from the regression analysis shows that build-up areas, degraded forest and water bodies were significant factors affecting arable land in the study area at 5% significance level. Findings from the logit regression shows that land ownership is 3.18-07 times less likely to have a strong negative effect on the livelihood of dwellers while source of income is 0.22 times less likely to have a negative effect on the livelihood of settlers. The change in income is 0.18 times less likely to have a negative impact on the livelihood of dwellers in the study area. Also land conversion is 667882.7 times more likely to have a strong negative effect on the livelihood of dwellers while displaced off from farmlands was 433248.8 times more likely to have a negative effect on the livelihood of dwellers in the study area. The study therefore recommends policy intervention to serve as a check to arable land use in order to control excessive land sub-division and intensifying and diversifying agriculture in order to supplement land loss and improve the livelihood of dwellers in the study area.

CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1Background to the study
Land is a gift of nature to mankind and serves as a basic resource for wealth creation and human survival. Societal development depends largely on land use by individuals and government for various economic and social purposes. From an economic perspective an essential feature of land is that it is scarce and subject to competing uses. According to Wu (2008) land use is the backbone of agricultural economies as it provides substantial economic and social benefits which is necessary and essential for economic development.

Land use is related to the conservation of land from one major use to another general use (Nanvati, 1951). According to Lillesand and Kiefer (1987); “The term land use relates to human activities associated with specific piece of land, features present on the earth surface. Therefore, land use is generally seen as the various activities carried out by man in order to satisfy his needs. Land use can also be seen as a description of how people utilize land for socio-economic activity. Urban and arable lands are two of the most common land use categories where land use for housing purpose could be seen as residential or urban use, while land use for farming activities could be seen as an arable land. At any point in place, there may be multiple and alternate land uses for different purpose. The need for increase food production, residential settlement, infrastructural development and economic development has led to different changing pattern of land use due to human activities. Population growth and urban expansion are primarily responsible for changes in the land use pattern of an area. For instance, as population increases, construction of dwellings also increases thus engendering conversion of cropland and forest land to settlements (Olaleye, Abiodun and Asonibare 2012). According to Cunningham, Cunningham and Siago (2005), rapidly increasing human populations and expanding agricultural activities have brought about extensive land use changes around the world.

Population increase is a common phenomenon to both developed and developing countries. In developed countries, it is associated with economic advancement where urban centers are seen as engine of growth by enhancing rural development through creating market for agricultural products. However, in developing countries population increase have positive and negative effect (Teketel, 2015). In Nigeria, as population increases, land becomes scarce. The growing population requires increasing area for agricultural production and, hence, large areas of forestland need to be opened up. As the rate of land area expansion falls short of the growth rate of population, land becomes scarce relative to labour. Urban environment belongs to one of the most dynamic systems on the earth due to heterogeneous nature of urban land uses with the consequence of rapid land use/land cover changes (Ndabula, Averik, Jidauna, Abaje, Oyatayo and Iguisi 2013).

Population increase arises from an increase in population that put pressure on demand for more infrastructural development and residential settlements which encroaches into arable land. Therefore, urban areas cannot economically, socially and physically be independent but have to be inter-dependent with the immediate rural agricultural environment located at the urban fringe for their food and services. Ndabula et al. (2013) states that land use in an urban environment and its attendant land degradation can increase cost of development and directly affect the urban poor who rely directly on the natural resources in urban areas for their subsistence. It is this encroachment on prime land that causes adverse environmental effects. Environmental degradation leads to reduction in crop yields and may reduce total factor productivity by requiring the use of higher inputs to maintain yields. It may also lead to the conversion of land to lower value uses from agricultural uses and may cause temporary or permanent abandonment of plots.

Population increase and changing socio-economic pattern are deriving forces that influence land use change in peri-urban areas (Jongkroy, 2009). Although multifaceted, the main cause of urban expansion is population pressure. Many cities are rapidly growing into their fringe, engulfing former villages and farm lands and transforming them into urban settlement. However, the principal reasons for population increase and city growth are rural-urban migration, geographical expansion of urban areas through annexation and transformation and re-classification of rural villages into small urban settlements (Cohen, 2005).

Peri-urban areas denotes neighbourhoods, suburbans or villages abounding a city proper or characterized by a large urban agglomeration and active land market transactions. In particular it denotes the space economy between the city and its rural areas (Masanja, 2003). Therefore, rapid urban population growth means more people living in established urban areas, it also means more people living at the outskirt of these urban areas which form the peri-urban areas. As Kessides (2006) observes, population increase involves the transformation of rural settlements at the urban periphery which become more densely populated and less dependent on agriculture. As a result of population pressure, rural areas of cities and towns are continuously converting to peri-urban status so that their land uses change from those dominated by agricultural to non-agricultural activities. The state of transition is characterized by interactions between the urban areas and their fringe lands so that the divide between rural and urban becomes very thin. This means is that, traditional (rural) farming activities come into conflict with alternative land uses that compete for the same land to serve economic, residential and recreational interests as households “ retain footholds in both the rural and urban economies”(Kessides, 2006:8).

Generally, urban expansion is one of the basic problems that affect the living standard of people and food security of many agrarian economies. This encroachment leads to the loss of agricultural farmlands and reduction of crops/food productivity. Therefore, proper use and utilization of land is essential for sustainable agricultural production and economic development in Nigeria. However, land resource is under pressure for development which makes it difficult for increasing food production. At the same time this causes environmental degradation which directly or indirectly affect the livelihood of the people living at the urban fringe.

1.2 Statement of the Research Problem
Rapid population growth has led to more extensive use of land resources for either residential settlement, infrastructural development, national park, forest conservation or agricultural use of land which have an opportunity cost for each uses. Following outward urban expansion, peri-urban land use pattern would change from the one dominated by agriculture to multiple uses. The problem of rapid and uncontrolled urban growth and its consequence on regional landscape in developing countries have been a serious concern for government. Perhaps more worrisome is the surreptitious city encroachment on fertile agricultural land and other socio-economic implication on peri-urban areas of most cities (Adeboyejo, 2007).

Increased land use as a result of population increase has become a major form of land degradation. Expansion of cities leads to the removal of large areas of the best agricultural land for production to built-up structures which consume large areas of land at the expense of agricultural land for food production. Land use change, however does not come without costs where conversion of farmlands and forests to urban development reduces the amount of lands available for food production (Wu, 2008). Adesina, et al. (1999) observed that in Nigeria, 400,000 hectares of agricultural land is lost annually and most of this land is deliberately used to make way for mineral exploring, development of infrastructure such as roads and railway and expansion of settlements.

Land faces more pressure as a result of competing demand for land between population increase and agricultural use which may affect the people living around the urban fringe. As many international urban expansion experiences have shown, it is the peripheral communities that are affected. During the process of urban expansion the loss of dwellings, assets and the uprooting from an existing pattern of living result in further impoverishment of the neighbourhoods (Teketel, 2015). Though the economic effects of population increase have positive effects for the majority of urban dwellers, serious negative effects would occur for the nearby farmers and poor (Nebiyu, 2000). According to FAO (2015b) peri-urban agriculture is land availability due to changing land rights, uses and values. High population densities lead to competition and conflicts over land and natural resources as land is converted from agricultural to residential and business uses, and as the intensity of agriculture practiced on available spaces increases.Population increase presents many challenges for farmers and dwellers on the urban fringe and may cause the “Impermanence syndrome” (i.e lack of confidence in the stability and long-run profitability of farming), leading to a reduction in investment in new technology or machinery, or idling of farmlands (Lopez, Adeleja and Andrew, 1988).

Kaduna metropolis is one of those fast growing cities in terms of population in Nigeria which grows from 896,055 (census 1991), 1,570,331 (census 2006) to 2,057,078 (NPC projection 2015). Igabi as one of the 23 local government areas in Kaduna state is situated at the fringe of the urban metropolis. This local government area has experienced a change in its arable land pattern where most of the land that was previously meant for agriculture in UnguwanKaji, Barakallahu, and Rigachikun are now built up areas with residential buildings, industrial estates, government institutions etc. Since farming land at the study area is getting less and less due to these urban sprawls which in turn force the displacement of peripheral farming communities whose livelihood is primarily based on agriculture. This encroachment into agricultural lands affects the livelihood of the local residents who depend mostly on these lands to earn their living. Thereby, becoming landless which may cause food shortage and increased poverty among them. Hence, the expansion of the Kaduna town is becoming irregular, fast and creation of displacement of farming community in which this study analyses rapid urban expansion as it affects arable land pattern of peripheral farming communities.

1.3 Research Questions
From the above stated problem, the following questions were raised;

i. What is the extent of population increase on land use change in the study area?

ii. What are the factors affecting arable land in the study area?

iii. What are the effects of population increase on the livelihood of indigenous people in the study area?

1.4 Objectives of the study
The broad objective of this research is to examine the effect of population increase on arable land use in Igabi Local Government of Kaduna State, Nigeria. The specific objectives are as follows:

i. To examine the extent of urban expansion on land use change in the study area.

ii. To ascertain the factors affecting arable land change pattern in the study area.

iii. To examine the effects of population increase on the livelihood of indigenous people in the study area.

1.5 Justification of the Study
The study of land use practice is important throughout the world for both developed and developing regions because it has a direct bearing on human activity. Its importance also increased as a result of rapidly increasing population pressure and decreasing man to land ratio and constant rising demand for food and raw materials. Therefore, the need for optimum utilization of land in an integrated manner is imperative. Hence, intensive and proper use of every parcel of land has become very essential.

Empirical studies on arable land have been carried out from within and outside Nigeria.

Studies by Yaser and Muna (2021), Opatoyinbo, Adepetu and Abdullahi (2015), Ndabula et al. (2013), Enaruvbe and Atedhor (2015), Joel (2011), Saleh et al. (2014) use GIS in their studies to ascertain the environmental effect and forecast future land use. Therefore, the magnitude of the impact on arable land is inconclusive and opened to further investigation.

Moreover, the methodological underpinnings of the literature is dominated by the use of GIS, descriptive statistics and a panel econometric panel. However, these methods are limited because it fails to capture livelihood effect on households. Therefore, this study integrates the use of both GIS/Landsat and cross sectional survey to ascertain the impact on individual households. Also, the study uses Multinomial logistic regression instead of panel econometrics because of the qualitative nature of the data.

The rate at which population increases over time in Igabi Local Government poses a concern because of the rate at which agricultural land is converted to other uses. For instance, rapid urban sprawl in Igabi has led to increasing and continuous encroachment into agricultural land for socioeconomic development. A competing demand for urban land for settlement and infrastructural development use and arable land for food production results in excessive clearing of forest land in order to satisfy human competing needs at the detriment of the environment. Therefore, urban expansion is at the expense of agricultural land and hence a trade-off exist.

Knowledge of the present distribution and area of such agricultural, recreational, and urban lands, as well as information on their changing patterns, is required by legislators, planners, and State and local governmental officials to formulate and implement land use policy.
1.6 Scope and Limitations of the Study

The study focused on Igabi Local Government area, Kaduna State and concentrates on specific locations which lie at the periphery of Kaduna metropolis. The peri-urban areas of Rigachikun, UnguwanKaji and Barakallah were chosen because they experience a direct effect of urban expansion in Kaduna state. The study also accessed the potentials of GIS and Remote Sensing techniques in land resources management with particular reference to determining agricultural land loss due to urban encroachment in the Local Government Area from 1995 to 2015. These periods enables the researcher to show and analyze the magnitude of changes that exist within the time frame.

The data derived from GIS mapping or satellite imagery of the study area was limited to 20 years in order to achieve the stated objectives of the research in the study area over the years. Also, the GIS mapping covers the entire Igabi Local Government instead of the specific areas of concentration which are Rigachikun, UnguwanKaji and Barakallah. This is because of the inability of the technique to capture the specific area of interest which reduce the accuracy of the result. Time constraint limits the scope of the study to only one local government area in Kaduna State.

1.7 Organization of the Study
The study was organized and structured into five chapters. Chapter one provides the general introduction that includes background of the study, statement of research problem, objectives of the study, justification, scope and limitations and the organization of the study. Chapter two is the literature review which comprises the definition of concepts, theoretical literature, empirical review of studies, gap identified and an overview of urban expansion and encroachment in the study area. Chapter three is the research methodology, chapter four presents the analysis, discussion and interpretation of results while chapter five contains the summary, conclusion and recommendations.

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Item Type: Project Material  |  Attribute: 67 pages  |  Chapters: 1-5
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