IMPACT OF FINANCIAL CRISIS ON THE FLUCTUATIONS OF NIGERIAN STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT

ABSTRACT
Musleh (2009) studied the implications of the global financial on macroeconomic and development policies in Pakistan and discovered the financial crisis led to the fall of liquid assets, gradual economic development, currency value and equity prices decline, etc. According to Jenrola & Daisi (2012), the collapse of the Nigerian Stock Exchange is not credited to the global financial crisis but as a result of the volatility of macroeconomic variables. Previous studies conducted revealed divers results on the effects of the global financial crisis on the stock market covering shorter periods of analysis. This study is intended to examine impact of financial crisis on the fluctuations of Nigerian stock market Development taking into account a longer period analysis from 1990 to 2014. The study used the OLS regression technique to examine the magnitude of the effect of the financial crisis on the fluctuations in the Nigerian stock market development using annual time series from 1990-2014. The study revealed that financial crisis has had no significant on the development of the Nigerian stock market and so does inflation. Gross domestic product and exchange rate rather had an effect on the development of the Nigerian stock market. The study therefore recommended that policy makers make efforts to implementing favourable policies or measures aimed at improving economic growth and reducing the rate of inflation in the economy, regulatory authorities implement policies aimed at stock market development by encouraging more domestic currency purchase which yield in country‟s exchange rate appreciation, the Nigerian stock market should engage in activities which improve stock market development, regulatory authorities ensure transparent and fair trading transactions and dealings in the Nigerian stock market.


CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the Study
The global financial crisis can be traced to the period of subprime mortgage crisis which occurred in the United States of America (USA) in 2007 spreading to other parts of the world and the economy as a whole. The crisis also affected some developed and developing economies such as Europe, United Kingdom, Asia, Japan, Nigeria, etc. (Sere-Ejembi, 2008). The global financial crisis brought about adverse effects in the economy such as credit and liquidity crunch, declining consumer demand, loss of jobs, downfall of the stock market, decreasing output and other various macroeconomic volatility indicators (Steinberg, 2008).

Prior to the global financial crisis, the Nigerian stock market was among the most rewarding financial institutions in the economy as a result of the banks consolidation exercise in 2004 leading to a rise in All share index (ASI) and Market capitalisation (MCA) to about 66,371 points and N12.64 trillion respectively in 2008 (George, 2008; Ajakaye & Fakiyesi, 2009).


In the early part of 2008, the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) had all share index and market capitalisation of 58,580 listings and N10.264 trillion respectively. The all share index and market capitalisation continued to rise till it attained its highest value of 66,371 points and N12.64 trillion respectively at the close of 2008 first quarter. Subsequently after it attained its highest value, all share Index dropped inevitably by 20% which persisted till it ended up with 27.9% decline (George, 2008; Ajakaye & Fakiyesi, 2009).


The global financial crisis persisted bringing down market capitalisation to about N5.4 trillion during the fourth quarter of 2009 (Aluko, 2008 and Olaoye, 2010). This disclosed negativity from the first quarter of 2008 to fourth quarter of 2009 of which All share index and market capitalisation went short by about 67% and 62% as a result of the global financial crisis on the Nigerian stock market (Ajakaye & Fakiyesi, 2009).

The Nigerian stock market witnessed instability in 2009 third quarter arising from declining market indices due to constant fall in share prices. The resultant effect was a capital market that was unfavourable and less attractive to investors after its drastic decline between 2008 and 2009.

Market capitalisation in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) decreased to N5.23 trillion in the concluding week of September 2009 from N6.18 trillion at the opening week of that quarter. Also, all share index closed at 22,507.08 basis points at the close of September 2009 from 22,861.55 basis points initially in the quarter, signifying a decline. This trend was as a result of the decline in share prices of banks which accounts for 60% of the NSE market capitalization. Consequently upon this development, all capital market operators were mandated by Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to put a stop to periodic registration with a view to improving capacity (Okeke, 2009).

Total market value of 309 listed securities on the exchange rose by 159.6% to close at N13.295 trillion by the end of 2007. The increase in market capitalisation was as a result of price appreciation. Market capitalisation of 212 equities listed accounted for N10.301 trillion or 77.5% of the aggregate market capitalisation. All share index also increased by 74.73% or 24,800.92 points to close at a historic value of 57,990.22 points in 2007 compared to the previous year which closed at 33,189.30 points. Its performance revealed a positive improvement in the prices of a large number of quoted equities.

As at January 2011, the capital market closed at a growth of 8.3% as the Nigerian Stock Indicator grew from 24,770.52 points to close at 26,830.97 points. Market capitalisation of equities listed summed up to N675 billion to close at N8.575 trillion coupled with the reforms introduced into the financial system and the market regained itself back in 2010. The capital market gained better performance later in terms of value and volume of shares traded. A commitment of about N104.04 billion was made by investors on 10.84 billion shares in January 2011 revealing an increase of 114% above N48.65 billion which was invested in 8.63 billion shares in 2010. The capital market also experienced some volatility between end of January and beginning of February 2011. Looking at the investments in the first few days of that year, investors have witnessed higher appreciation that is higher than growth posted by index. Notwithstanding year to date growth of index still being below 10%, some stocks posted growth of between 18% and 22% (Ogoh, 2011).

As at March 13, 2012, All Share Index went up by 0.65% to close at 21,227.90 points in contrast to its rise by 0.67% revealed in the records of the previous day closing at 21,091.36 basis points. Market capitalisation in the Nigerian stock market appreciated by N6.69 trillion greater than the rise by N44.6 billion revealed in the previous day‟s records closing at N6.65 trillion. Volume of transaction in equities declined by 15.6% resulting from an exchange by the investors of 243.45 million shares valued at N4.45 billion traded on 4,165 transactions in the stock market the previous day leading to gain in the market (Johnson 2012). 

The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) was formed in the year 1960 and was referred to as Lagos Stock Exchange at that period. In December 1977, it became known as the Nigerian Stock Exchange having its branches founded in the key cities of the country. In May 2009, the exchange had 295 listed securities constituting of 41 federal government stocks, 47 with a total of N9.45 trillion. Also as at December 2013, there were 200 companies listed on the exchange having N12.88 trillion as its total market capitalisation (Nigerian Stock Exchange Facts Book, 2014). 

1.2 Statement of Problem
The 2008 global financial crisis was the most unfavourable crisis ever since the great depression of the 1830s and 1930s. It became obvious in September 2008 as a result of its collapse in various big companies based in the United States of America. Causes such as decline of bank stock prices, reduced level of production by firms and increased cost of goods resulting from increased level of demand by the society which led to financial crisis were reported for months prior to September 2008 in several business journals (McClure & Morton, 2008).

Market capitalisation of the Nigerian Stock Exchange witnessed a profound recess in activity with an extreme 45.8% decline in 2008 and recollected the period in 2007 when the market rose by 74.7% showing a significant fall (Ajakaye & Fakiyesi, 2009).

According to Udeme (2009), market capitalisation of more than 303 listed equities worth N10.18 trillion in 2004 consistently appreciated to N12.4 trillion in March, 2007 indicating its optimum record ever attained since its 48 years of operation. Market capitalisation and all share index also  declined to N3.2 trillion and 31,450.78 respectively at close of 2008.

According to Jenrola & Daisi (2012), the collapse of the Nigerian Stock Exchange is not credited to the global financial crisis but as a result of macroeconomic variables volatility in Nigeria such as unfavourable exchange rate, inflationary pressure, insufficient infrastructural facilities, etc.

Olowe (2009) also examined the effect of the global financial crisis on stock return response and Nigerian stock market instability with the use of EGARCH model. The study reported that stock returns and its instability are free from the financial crisis gravity due to low exposure of the Nigerian stock market to the foreign society.

Khlor (2009) threw more light on how finance and international trade became the main ways through which western crisis spread to developing economies. In the case of finance, the transmission is in form of toxic assets, foreign capital flow, liquidity crisis and foreign domestic investment. He discovered that the value of export declined by 46% in Japan, 44% in Taiwan, 40% in Singapore, etc

Musleh (2009) studied the implications of the global financial crisis on macroeconomic and development policies in Pakistan and discovered that financial crisis led to fall of trade in goods and services rate, currency value decline, equity prices decline and interest rate increase declined on stock price index.

Studies carried out previously indicated diverse results on the effects of the global financial crisis on the stock market and the economy covering shorter periods of analysis. This study is however intended to examine the impacts of the financial crisis on the fluctuations of Nigerian stock market development taking into account a longer period of analysis.

1.3 Objectives of the Study
The main objective of the study is to examine the impact of the financial crisis on the fluctuations of Nigerian stock market development.


The specific objective of the study is:

·         To examine the trend of market capitalisation.

1.4 Research Hypothesis
The study seeks to validate the following hypothesis:

H0  –  Financial  Crisis  has  no  effect  on  the  fluctuations  of  the  Nigerian  stock  market

development

H1– Financial Crisis affects the fluctuations of the Nigerian stock market development

1.5 Justification and Significance of the Study
This study is significant in the sense that the Nigerian stock market is extremely essential for the growth and development of the financial and industrial sectors of the country as a whole. This study will be useful to financial institutions, private investors, financial analysts and government which constitute the key operators in the stock market in understanding the effects of the crisis and establish guidelines, legal framework in relation to lending to avoid situations resulting in crisis.

This study is useful to both to the financial and non-financial institutions at national and international levels because the crises affects various aspects of life such as multinational firms which operate directly or indirectly around the world will discover the negative effects brought about by the financial crisis and take measures to kick against such occurrences in the future by diversifying their portfolio.

This study is significant in providing the public investors with investments to improve their process of decision making by imparting them with the knowledge of selecting between medium-term and long-term investments as compared to short term investments that usually turn into gambling.

1.6 Scope of the Study
This research intends to study and examine the impacts of financial crisis on the fluctuations of Nigerian stock market development. The research digs into a period of 25 years starting from 1990 to 2014.

1.7 Organisation of the Study
The study comprises five (5) chapters. Chapter One introduces the background to the study, statement of problem, objectives of the study, research hypothesis, justification and significance of the study, scope and limitations of the study, methodology and organisation of the study. Chapter two reviews relevant literature. Chapter three entails the method for the study. Chapter four presents data analysis and discussion of results. Chapter five covers the summary of findings, conclusions and recommendations.

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Item Type: Ghanaian Project Material  |  Attribute: 45 pages  |  Chapters: 1-5
Format: MS Word  |  Price: GH50  |  Delivery: Within 30Mins.
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