EFFECT OF INVESTORS’ SENTIMENT ON STOCK MARKET RETURNS IN NIGERIA


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title Page
Abstract
Table of Content

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1       Background to the Study
1.2       Statement of the Problem
1.3       Objectives of the Study
1.4       Research Hypotheses
1.5       Significance of the Study
1.6       Scope of the Study

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1       Introduction
2.2       Concept of Investors Sentiment
            2.2.1  Development of Investors Sentiment
            2.2.2  Measurement of Investors Sentiment
2.3       Alternative Approaches to Market Sentiment
            2.3.1    Macro Approach
            2.3.2    Micro Approach
2.4       Bull and Bear Market Cycle
2.5       Review of Empirical Literature
            2.5.1  Investors Sentiment under Bull and Bear Market Cycle
2.6       Theoretical and Conceptual Framework

CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1       Introduction
3.2       Research Method
            3.2.1    Population and Sampling Techniques
3.3       Model Specifications
3.4       Definition of Variables
            3.4.1    Dependent Variable
            3.4.2    Independent Variable
3.5       Data Collection
3.6       Data Analysis Techniques
            3.6.1  Error Correction Model (ECM)
3.7       Justification of Data Analysis Used

CHAPTER FOUR: DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF RESULTS
4.1       Introduction
4.2       Descriptive Statistics
4.3       Correlation Matrix
4.4       Test of Mean Difference
4.5       Unit root test
4.6       Co-integration test
4.7       Error Correction Model (ECM)
            4.7.1    Tested Model 1
            4.7.2    Tested Model 2
            4.7.3    Tested Model 3
4.8       Summary of Findings

CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1       Summary
5.2       Conclusion
5.3       Recommendations
5.4       Limitation of the Study
5.5       Suggestions for Further Studies
5.6       Contribution to Knowledge
            References
            Appendix



Abstract

The study examined the effect of investors’ sentiment on stock market return in Nigeria with consideration to bull and bear market cycles which most past studies neglected. The dependent variable was proxy by Stock Market Returns (SPR) while the explanatory variables were investors sentiment (SentPCA), Interest Rate(INTR), Inflation Rate (INFL) and Exchange Rate (EXRT), while bull events (positive market returns) and bear market event (negative market returns) were used as moderating variables to investors sentiment. In this study, quarterly data from 1985Q1 to 2014Q4 were collected from secondary sources such as CBN, NSE and SEC while in the estimation of the models formulated, statistical techniques which include descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, unit root test, Engel-Granger co-integration test, overparameterized and Parsimonious error correction model (ECM) were adopted. The results from the study show that investors’ sentiment had a statistically significantly relationship with stock market returns dynamics in Nigeria but when moderated for bear market cycle, the impact of investors sentiment on stock returns in Nigeria became statistically insignificant. In the case of Bull market cycle, it was observed that there was a statistically significant relationship between investors’ sentiment and stock market returns. We also found that exchange rate variation was more potent in distorting stock market returns dynamics in Nigeria than interest rate and inflation rate. Notably, inflation rate was found to have less value relevant to equity investors in Nigeria. This study therefore makes the following conclusions that investors in Nigeria’s equity market are likely to take market sentiment news and exchange rate announcement more serious than interest rate and inflation rate when investing in shares. During the bear market cycle, most equity investors would completely try to stay off the market waiting for another bull market run. The study recommends that investors and capital market participants should develop strategies for managing sentiment while policy market should develop policies that would prevent extreme market sentiment and also maintain stable exchange rate and interest rate environment that promote less volatile stock market.




CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background to the Study


Stock market prices both in developed and emerging countries are generally believed to be responsive to economic and market fundamentals or new information. The event of 2008/2009 market crashwhich led to a wide deviation of stock prices from their fundamental value is generating questions and drawing attention to finding out if non-market and non-economic fundamentals are responsible for such deviations. The determination of equity price movement in most emerging stock markets has been discussed by scholars and researchers from the perspective of market, economic and firm-specific fundamentals.However, there has been some kind of shift in the discussion of equity price movement to favouringinvestors‘ sentiment/emotions. Investors‘ sentiment in general term refers to the attitude, emotions and biases that exhibit in the course of investment decision. Baek, Bandopadhaya and Du (2005) studies revealed that most short-term movements in asset prices such as equity are best explained by investors‘ sentiment. Similarly, Fisher and Stantunan (2000)are also of the view that investors‘ sentiment matter to asset pricing process.


Thus, in the pricing of equities and other financial assets, investors‘ attitude is of major concern for financial analyst and it is seen as a key determinant of the value of most financial assets (Huiwen, 2012). Baker and Wurgler (2006) recognized investors‘ psychology as a vital component in market pricing process of financial assets. This is because the sentiment of investors‘ may also reflect their risk profile and investors‘ emotion are displayed in different forms. In behavioural finance, emphasis is placed on investors‘ sentiment/bias such as....

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