EFFECT OF TRIANGULAR AND GAUSSIAN MEMBERSHIP FUNCTIONS IN FUZZY TIME SERIES FORECASTING: A CASE STUDY OF ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING


For more Electrical & Computer Engineering Project click here



TABLE OF CONTENTS

TITLE PAGE
ABSTRACT

CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1. BACKGROUND
1.2 SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY
1.3 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM
1.4 PROJECT OUTLINE

CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICALBACKGROUND
2.1 LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1.1 INTRODUCTION
2.2 REVIEW OF PAST WORKS IN THIS AREA
2.3. FUZZY SET THEORY AND FORCECASTING
2.3.1 FUZZY TIME SERIES
2.3.2 FUZZY LOGIC OPERATORS
2.4 MEMBERSHIP FUNCTION
2.4.1 MEMBERSHIP FUNCTIONS IN FUZZY LOGIC
2.4.2 MEMERSHIP FUNCTIONS FOR FUZZIFICATION
2.4. PERFORMANCE MEASURES

CHAPTER THREE
3.1       INTRODUCTION
3.2 FORECASTING ANALYSIS

CHAPTER FOUR
4.1       INTRODUCTION
4.2       SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULT

CHAPTER FIVE
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER WORK
5.1       SUMMARY
5.2       LIMITATIONS
5.3       CONCLUSION
5.4       SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER WORK
REFERENCE
APPENDIX




ABSTRACT

Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) plays a great role in fuzzification of data, which is based on certain membership functions. In this thesis, a 24 weeks load demand data from PHCN was used and fuzzified based on the Gaussian Membership Functions, after that all fuzzified data are defuzzified to get normal form. The results obtained using the GMF (Gaussian Membership Functions) is compared with that of the TMF (Triangular Membership Function), from which the comparison basis was based on, qualitative performance indicator and statistical error. The RMSE Values obtained using the GMF and the TMF are 66.5 and 17.1 respectively, while their correlation factor R is 0.98 for TMF and 0.86 for GMF. From the analysis carried out the TMF generated the least RMSE and hence, is more suitable in forecasting for electric load.




CHAPTER ONE


INTRODUCTION


1.1  BACKGROUND

Load forecasting is of vital importance in the electricity industry, especially in a deregulated economy like that of Nigeria. It has many application including energy purchasing and generation, load switching, contract evaluation, and infrastructural development. A large variety of mathematical models have been developed and applied in carrying out load forecasting. In this work, the Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) approach is used for the load forecasting.

There is a planned Government policy towards unbundling the utility (Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN)) company with the objective of improving efficiency of electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. This emphasizes proper and effective planning, management and operations of the network. The operation and planning of a power utility company requires an adequate model for electric power load forecasting.

Load forecasting plays a key role in helping an electricity utility to make important decisions on power, load switching, voltage control, network reconfiguration, and infrastructure development. It is extremely important for an optimal management of generation and distribution of electric energy to have as precise as possible the load profile prediction.

According to Abbasovand Mamedova (2003), time series represents a consecutive series of observations taken over equal time intervals. The application of Fuzzy Logic and fuzzy sets to time series analysis gave rise to Fuzzy Time Series. The method to be applied here is the method initially used by Abbasovand mamedova (2003), in forecasting population in.......


For more Electrical & Computer Engineering Project click here


___________________________________________________________________________
This is a General Thesis for both Undergraduate & Postgraduate Studies. The complete research material plus questionnaire and references can be obtained at an affordable price of N3,000 within Nigerian or its equivalent in other currencies.


INSTRUCTION ON HOW TO GET THE COMPLETE PROJECT MATERIAL

Kindly pay/transfer a total sum of N3,000 into any of our Bank Accounts listed below:
·         Diamond Bank Account:
A/C Name:      Haastrup Francis
A/C No.:         0096144450

·         GTBank Account:
A/C Name:      Haastrup Francis
A/C No.:         0029938679
After payment, send your desired Project Topic, Depositor’s Name, and your Active E-Mail Address to which the material would be sent for downloading (you can request for a downloading link if you don’t have an active email address) to +2348074521866 or +2348066484965. You can as well give us a direct phone call if you wish to. Projects materials are sent in Microsoft format to your mail within 30 Minutes once payment is confirmed.

--------------------------------------------------------
N/B:    By ordering for our material means you have read and accepted our Terms and Conditions


Terms of Use: This is an academic paper. Students should NOT copy our materials word to word, as we DO NOT encourage Plagiarism. Only use as guide in developing your original research work.

Delivery Assurance
We are trustworthy and can never SCAM you. Our success story is based on the love and fear for God plus constant referrals from our clients who have benefited from our site. We deliver project materials to your Email address within 15-30 Minutes depending on how fast your payment is acknowledged by us.

Quality Assurance
All research projects, Research Term Papers and Essays on this site are well researched, supervised and approved by lecturers who are intellectuals in their various fields of study.
Share:

Search for your topic here

See full list of Project Topics under your Department Here!

Featured Post

Article: How to Write a Research Proposal

Most students and beginning researchers do not fully understand what a research proposal means, nor do they understand ...

Popular Posts