TRADE OPENNESS AND OUTPUT GROWTH IN NIGERIA: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS (1970-2007)

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ABSTRACT
This research work studies the international competitiveness of the Nigerian economy in the global market by analyzing the relationship between trade openness and output growth in Nigeria. Using time-series data over the period 1970-2007, we show that output growth of the Nigeria economy is a function of two sets of shocks; (i) external shocks (openness and real exchange rate) and (ii) internal shocks (real interest rate and unemployment rate). A non-monotonic and an ANCOVA econometric models are postulated in  order to capture the structural pattern of the relationship between openness and output growth as well as the policy effect of structural Adjustment program (SAP). The result shows that there is an inverted U-shape (no-monotonic) relationship between openness and output growth in Nigeria and the optimum degree of openness for the economy is estimated to be about 67%. Also, the liberalization policy of the SAP has positive economic effect on the output growth. The ECM reveals that 79% of the equilibrium error is being corrected in the next period. We concluded that unbridled openness may have deleterious effect on the real growth of output of the Nigerian economy.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title page
Approval page
Dedication
Acknowledgement
Abstract
Table of contents
List of tables and figures
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1     Background of study
1.1.2  Trade openness and output growth                              
Historical Experience of the Nigeria economy
1.2            Statement of the research problem
1.3            Objectives of the study
1.4            Statement of the research hypothesis        
1.5            Justification of the study        
1.6            Significance of the study        
1.7            Scope and limitation of the study
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1            Theoretical literature
2.1.2 Theory of customs union and free trade areas     
        2.1.3 Models of export-led growth
2.2            Empirical literature
2.3            Limitation of previous studies
CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY 
3.1            Analytical framework
3.2            Model specification
        3.2.1 Test of stationarity
        3.2.2 Test of co integration      
        3.2.3 Error correction model
3.3     Justification of the model       
3.4     Estimation techniques
3.5     Evaluation Procedure
        3.5.1 Economic test (a priori expectation)
        3.5.2 Statistical (first order) test        
        3.5.3 Econometric (second order) test         
3.6     Sources of data and software for estimation
CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF RESULTS
4.1            Introduction        
4.2            Presentations of regression results
4.2.1Test of stationarity         
        4.2.2 Test of co integration      
        4.2.3 The Error correction model (ECM)
4.3            Interpretation and Evaluation of result
4.3.1Evaluation based on economic criteria        
         4.3.2Evaluation based on statistical criteria        
         4.3.3 Evaluation based on econometric criteria
4.4            Evaluation of the working Hypotheses     
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, POLICY PRESCRIPTION
AND CONCLUSION 
5.1            Summary
5.2            Policy Recommendations


CHAPTER ONE

 INTRODUCTION

1.1     BACKGROUND OF STUDY
 The current period in the world economy is regarded as period of globalization and trade liberalization. In this period, one the crucial issues in development and international economics is to know whether trade openness indeed promotes growth. With globalization, two major trends are noticeable: first is the emergence of multinational firms with strong presence in different, strategically located markets; and secondly, convergence of consumer tastes for the most competitive products, irrespective of where they are made. In this context of the world as a “global village”, regional integration constitutes an effective means of not only improving the level of participation of countries in the sub-region in world trade, but also their integration into the borderless and interlinked global economy. (NEEDS, 2005).
          Since 1950, the world economy has experienced a massive liberalization of world trade, initially under the auspices of the General Agreement on Tariffs and trade (GATT), established in 1947, and currently under the auspices....


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